El Niño Winter 2026-27: What It Means for Ski Season
By Justin McKelvey · Updated
Short answer: winter 2026-27 is a strong El Niño, not a La Niña. NOAA gives a better than 83% chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January to March 2027. Its winter outlook favors a warmer north and a wetter south from California to Florida. In past strong El Niños, California, Utah, Colorado and the Southwest got more snow, and the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes got less.
Is this winter El Niño or La Niña?
El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect. Its October 8, 2026 update said El Niño "continues to strengthen" and gave a better than 83% chance of a strong to very strong event through January to March 2027. The weekly Niño-3.4 ocean index was +2.1°C, and CPC put the odds of a historic event (+2.5°C or more) at 83% for October to December.
CPC also cautions that with an event this big, El Niño-like impacts are more likely "though not guaranteed." Its next updates come out November 12 (ENSO) and November 19 (seasonal outlook); we'll update this page after each.
What NOAA's winter outlook says (December to February)
- Warmer than average is favored across the northern US: the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Midwest and much of the East.
- Wetter than average is favored across the southern US from California to Florida, and along the East Coast.
- Drier than average is favored in parts of the Northern Rockies and the Great Lakes.
- Utah and Colorado: equal chances. The Intermountain West has no tilt either way.
- NOAA's outlook does not forecast snowfall totals. It forecasts the odds of above or below normal temperature and precipitation.
What a strong El Niño has meant for ski regions
NOAA's Climate.gov looked at snowfall during El Niño winters from 1950 to 2009. The most reliable signal is below-average snow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. In strong El Niños, California, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico were among the states with the biggest above-average snow, though that rests on only about 10 strong events.
| Region | NOAA outlook (Dec to Feb) | Typical strong El Niño |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest | Warmer than average (some of the highest odds in the country) | Below-average snow; NWS Spokane says milder with below-normal snowfall inland |
| Northern Rockies | Warmer; drier in parts | Leans below-normal precipitation (NOAA CPC's Scott Handel) |
| Utah and Colorado | Equal chances for precipitation | Strong El Niños leaned snowy, but the sample is small. Northern Utah is "more of a toss-up," while southern Utah leans wet (Handel). The Colorado Climate Center finds no clear El Niño precipitation signal over Colorado. |
| California and the Sierra | Wetter than average across the south; warmer in the north | Among the biggest above-average snow states in strong El Niños; the jet stream steers storms farther south |
| Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico) | Wetter than average; drought expected to improve | Among the biggest above-average snow states (Sangre de Cristos, Colorado Plateau) |
| Northeast | Wetter along the East Coast; warmer | No clear Northeast signal; more snow in the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians |
| Great Lakes | Drier in parts | Below-average snow, part of the most reliable El Niño signal |
How to plan a ski season around it
- Don't bet the whole winter on a seasonal outlook. It shifts the odds; individual storms decide your trip. Book refundable lodging where you can, and watch the 7-day forecast rankings.
- If you're flexible, lean south. California, the Southwest and southern Utah have the best historical El Niño odds. See the best ski resorts in California and Utah.
- Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies skiers: the outlook favors a warm winter. Higher-elevation resorts hold snow better; check each resort's powder day odds by month.
- Get alerts instead of guessing. Snow Way's free powder alerts email you when a big storm lines up at your mountain.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO diagnostic discussion (Oct 8, 2026)
- NOAA: El Niño looms large over US winter outlook (Oct 15, 2026)
- NOAA Climate.gov: Snow during El Niños, 1950-2009
- NOAA Climate.gov: How El Niño and La Niña affect the winter jet stream
- National Weather Service Spokane: El Niño and La Niña
- Utah Public Radio: El Niño and winter precipitation (Sept 2026)
- Colorado Climate Center: ENSO and Colorado
FAQ
Is winter 2026-27 El Niño or La Niña?
El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and, as of October 8, 2026, gave a better than 83% chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January to March 2027.
What does El Niño mean for ski season?
In past strong El Niño winters, California, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico were among the states with the most above-average snow, while the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes tended to get less (NOAA Climate.gov). NOAA's 2026-27 outlook favors a warmer north and a wetter south from California to Florida.
Does El Niño mean less snow in the Pacific Northwest?
Usually. Below-average snowfall from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes is the most reliable El Niño snow signal, and NOAA's 2026-27 outlook favors a warmer than average winter there.
Will Utah and Colorado get more snow in El Niño?
It's uncertain. NOAA gives the Intermountain West equal chances for precipitation this winter. Strong El Niños have leaned snowy for Utah and Colorado, but the sample is small, northern Utah is a toss-up, and the Colorado Climate Center finds no clear El Niño precipitation signal for Colorado.